WINTER SHUTDOWN

Climate change in Panama and the crisis in the Red Sea are imposing shipping constraints and are considerably restricting world trade flows. The direct consequence of this situation is the sharp increase in freight rates and the introduction of surcharges, which are likely to continue until the situation in the Red Sea is resolved.

First of all, the disruption to the Panama Canal caused by the low water levels of El Nino have authorities to restrict daily passages by a third (i.e. 24 a day).

Almost at the same time, the conflict in the Red Sea began, with attacks on ships by the Houthi rebels and tensions in the Gulf of Aden.

tensions in the Gulf of Aden and the Suez Canal. 80% of ships (i.e. 17% of the world fleet) were diverted towards fleet) were diverted to the Cape of Good Hope.

These diversions lengthened sea times by 12 to 15 days, increasing ship operating costs and costs and forcing companies to reinforce services with 2 or even 3 additional ships.

additional ships. This situation will have several consequences over the coming weeks:

• Ship delays will result in a capacity shortfall of up to 40% for weeks

4 to 6 from Asia. Companies will have to manage capacity by continuing their blank sailing blank sailing programme in order to create a backlog of containers,

• The disruption to vessel rotation schedules will lead to port congestion particularly in Northern European ports,

• Longer mobilisation of containers on board ships will affect the availability of containers in inland availability of containers in inland depots in Europe (some are already starting to run short) and an imminent shortage of equipment is expected in Asia,

• In order to enable containers to be turned around more quickly and to limit their immobilisation, some companies are beginning to review their policy of accepting freetime port,

• Increase in freight rates, fuel costs and introduction of exceptional surcharges:

• The increase in fuel consumption due to changes in services has already had an impact on both export and import freight rates.

• With the approach of the Chinese New Year and the need for shipping lines to pressure on rates, further increases are expected. The SCFI index has risen by 97% since the beginning of December, and industry analysts are talking of rates

reaching usd 10,000/'40 by February,

• Since the beginning of January, shipping companies have introduced emergency surcharges

to cover additional operating costs, and are already applying Peak Season Surcharges (PSS) on certain routes.

Season Surcharge) on certain routes.

• Increase in the EU ETS

• The increase in rates will also be supported by additional costs particularly with the introduction of the EU ETS in January 2024. The EU ETS levies a carbon tax based on the distance between the last stop outside the EU and the first stop in the EU.

the EU. Bypassing the Cape of Good Hope increases the amount of this tax considerably the amount of this tax, particularly for direct services from Asian ports,

• In order to limit the impact of this tax on rates as much as possible, airlines are considering modifying their rotation by adding ports of call closer to the EU, such as Jeddah or Damietta, thereby Damietta, thereby offering lower rates than their competitors.

Our operational and sales teams are at your disposal to keep you informed about the progress of your shipments.

We will keep you informed as the situation develops.